Sun, 25 Mar 2007

Warmest Winter on Record

Science Daily is reporting that this winter is the warmest on record:

NOAA reports that February's combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the sixth warmest on record, but a strong El Niño in January helped push the winter to its highest value since records began in 1880.

This report makes me stop and think about a couple of things:

• Is something like a global temperature meaningful?
• Is the strong El Niño caused by global warming or just some natural phenomenon which needs to be discounted.

I am convinced that global warming is real and that human activity is a major contributor to it. But this type of thing makes me understand how difficult a subject it is to discuss and how skeptics can see natural patterns and conspiracies in the discussion. It makes me understand how careful scientists must be when discussing global warming and its consequences to make sure that those who oppose the concept can't claim that they are overstating the situation.

When we think globally about weather and climate, things get complex. There are places in the world where drought is occurring and other places where precipitation is above normal. There are places where it is warmer than average while other places experience colder than normal weather. Violent weather may be on the upturn, but it's difficult to determine the cause.

When we think about averages and climate differences, significant differences can be very minor -- a fraction of a degree. There is plenty of room for different interpretations of the data.

I think caution and a conservative approach to any data like this is the best approach. Interpreting data with the most conservative bent will allow little room for opponents to present a different interpretation or attack the interpreters as liberal wacko's.

posted 15:29 [/globalwarming] permanent link